Claim: Wall Street traders knew about the Strait of Hormuz blockade before it happened and made billions shorting oil futures

The claim that Wall Street traders had prior knowledge of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and profited from shorting oil futures is false. Evidence from various sources indicates that while there were significant market movements, they were reactions to events occurring after the blockade began, not indications of foreknowledge. Mainstream financial analyses and reports do not support the idea of traders profiting billions from prior knowledge of the blockade. Alternative sources speculating on market behavior do not provide concrete evidence of such foreknowledge or profits. The models diverge sharply — treat this as higher-uncertainty. Gemini comes in highest (50%), while Perplexity is lowest (0%). OpenAI expresses higher confidence than Gemini on this claim. While some sources discuss market reactions and large transactions around the time of the blockade, they do not substantiate claims of prior knowledge or significant profits from shorting oil futures. The lack of evidence for foreknowledge before the blockade, as highlighted by multiple analyses, suggests that the claim is unfounded. The absence of credible reports or data supporting the assertion of billions made by traders further reinforces the verdict of falsehood. Thus, the opposing claims do not alter the conclusion drawn from the evidence presented.