Claim: Do foreign countries pay Trumps tariffs and not Americans?

The claim that foreign countries pay Trump's tariffs is mostly false. Research from the Kiel Institute and other studies indicate that the vast majority of tariff costs are borne by American consumers and importers, with foreign exporters covering only a small fraction. While some sources suggest that exporters may absorb a portion of the costs over time, this does not negate the overwhelming burden placed on Americans. Critics argue that the shifting nature of tariff costs complicates the issue, but the consensus remains that Americans primarily pay these tariffs. The models diverge sharply — treat this as higher-uncertainty. Gemini comes in highest (50%), while Perplexity is lowest (15%). Perplexity expresses higher confidence than Gemini on this claim. Some opposing sources suggest that while US importers initially pay tariffs, over time, foreign exporters may reduce prices, leading to a shared cost burden. For instance, the Council on Foreign Relations notes that by October, exporters absorbed 18% of the costs. However, this does not significantly alter the overall conclusion that the majority of tariffs are paid by Americans, as the initial burden remains heavily skewed towards US consumers. Thus, while there is some nuance, it does not change the overall verdict that foreign countries do not primarily pay these tariffs.