Claim: Is 2026 shaping up to be one of the worst hurricane seasons on record?

The claim that 2026 is shaping up to be one of the worst hurricane seasons on record is mostly false. Forecasts from reputable sources like Colorado State University and the Miami Herald predict below-average hurricane activity for 2026, with 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes expected. However, some alternative forecasts suggest a more active season, indicating uncertainty in predictions. This discrepancy highlights the variability in hurricane season forecasts, especially before the season officially begins. Overall, the consensus leans towards a less active season compared to historical averages. The models diverge sharply — treat this as higher-uncertainty. Gemini comes in highest (95%), while Perplexity is lowest (10%). Gemini expresses higher confidence than OpenAI on this claim. While the majority of forecasts indicate a below-average hurricane season for 2026, some sources, such as Tropical Storm Risk and the University of Arizona, predict average to above-average activity. This divergence in predictions does not significantly alter the overall assessment that 2026 is unlikely to be one of the worst seasons on record, but it does introduce a level of uncertainty regarding the final outcome. The season has not yet started, and actual conditions could vary, which is common in seasonal forecasts.