Claim: Is the claim that 82 percent of women who got the COVID vaccine in the first trimester had miscarriages actually true?

First requested: August 17, 2026 at 8:55 AM
13%

IsItCap Score

Truth Potential Meter

Not Credible

AI consensusWeak

Grader consensus is weak.
Range 8%–50% (spread Δ42).
The graders diverge. Treat the combined score as uncertain and read the sources carefully.
Read analysis summary

OpenAI Grade

0%
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80%
10%

Perplexity Grade

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80%
8%

Google Gemini Grade

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50%
Shareable summary
Verdict: Questionable
  • Multiple fact checks call the 82% figure a misinterpretation.
  • The cited studies do not show an 82% miscarriage rate.
/r/fact-check-82-percent-miscarriage-rate-covid-vaccine

Analysis Summary

The claim that 82 percent of women who received the COVID vaccine in the first trimester had miscarriages is false. Mainstream sources, including major media outlets and health organizations, consistently debunk this statistic, attributing it to misinterpretations of early data. Alternative sources that support the claim often rely on flawed calculations or misrepresentations of the data. This discrepancy highlights the importance of relying on credible studies and expert consensus regarding vaccine safety during pregnancy. The models diverge sharply — treat this as higher-uncertainty. Gemini comes in highest (50%), while Perplexity is lowest (8%). Perplexity expresses higher confidence than Gemini on this claim. While some sources may suggest that there are concerns about vaccine safety during pregnancy, they do not provide credible evidence to support the claim of an 82% miscarriage rate. The majority of studies and expert opinions indicate that the miscarriage rate among vaccinated women is not significantly different from the general population. The existence of conflicting claims does not alter the overall consensus that the 82% figure is a misrepresentation of data, thus reinforcing the verdict of falsehood regarding the original claim.
Jump to source analysis

Source quality

Truth (from sources)1.00 / 10
Source reliability9.00 / 10
Source independence8.00 / 10

Claim checks

Fits established facts10.00 / 10
Logical consistency10.00 / 10
Expert consensus10.00 / 10
Related fact checks

Source Analysis

Common arguments
Supporting the claim
  • Early data were incomplete and easy to misread.
  • A first-trimester subgroup can be sensitive to denominator choices.
  • Some articles cite a table from preliminary CDC data.
Against the claim
  • Multiple fact checks call the 82% figure a misinterpretation.
  • The cited studies do not show an 82% miscarriage rate.
  • The 82% comes from excluding ongoing pregnancies from the denominator.

Mainstream Sources

Publication

health.yahoo.com

Title

Fact Check: Studies Do NOT Show an 81% or 82% Miscarriage Rate in Women Vaccinated Against COVID-19 in First Trimester

Summary

Do studies show an 81% or 82% miscarriage rate in pregnant women vaccinated against COVID-19 in the first trimester? <strong>No, that&#x27;s not true</strong>: The numbers are a long-running misrepresentation of early safety data on how mRNA COVID-19 vaccines affected ...

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Publication

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Title

The risk of miscarriage following COVID-19 vaccination - PMC

Summary

Checking your browser before accessing pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov · Click here if you are not automatically redirected after 5 seconds

Source details

Type: Official
No Date

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Publication

leadstories.com

Title

Fact Check: Studies Do NOT Show an 81% or 82% Miscarriage Rate in Women Vaccinated Against COVID-19 in First Trimester | Lead Stories

Summary

<strong>No, that&#x27;s not true</strong>: The numbers are a long-running misrepresentation of early safety data on how mRNA COVID-19 vaccines affected pregnant people. The 81% and 82% figures come from miscalculating percentages from early, incomplete data -- no ...

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Alternative Sources

Publication

nytimes.com

Title

Covid Vaccine and Pregnancy: What to Know Now - The New York Times

Summary

<strong>One piece of misinformation shared widely this week is a false claim that 82 percent of women vaccinated in their first or second trimester miscarried</strong>. The people who have spread this statistic calculated it from a table in a preliminary C.D.C. ...

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Type: Major Media

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Publication

snopes.com

Title

Fauci didn't cover up data supposedly showing COVID-19 vaccine had 82% miscarriage rate | Snopes.com

Summary

... <strong>The rate of miscarriage among pregnant women who received the COVID-19 vaccine is not 82%</strong> — that figure comes from a misinterpretation of a 2021 study. Studies have consistently shown the rate of miscarriage among vaccinated women is in ...

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Publication

19thnews.org

Title

No, COVID-19 vaccines don’t increase miscarriage rates

Summary

So, <strong>he changed the denominator by excluding those 700 to calculate a new miscarriage rate of about 82 percent.</strong> But that new denominator, 127, represented only early-vaccinated women whose pregnancies had already ended by the time of the study’s ...

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Analysis Breakdown

True/False Spectrum (1.0)Source Credibility (9.0)Bias Assessment (8.0)Contextual Integrity (10.0)Content Coherence (10.0)Expert Consensus (10.0)80%

How to read the breakdown

Weakest areas
Truth1.0/10Independence8.0/10
  • Truth: how well sources support the core claim.
  • Source reliability: whether the sources have a strong track record.
  • Independence: whether coverage looks one-sided or recycled.
  • Context: missing details (timeframe, definitions, scope) that change meaning.
  • Tip: if graders disagree, rely more on the summary + sources than the single number.

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Methodology