77%
IsItCap Score
Truth Potential MeterGenerally Credible
Generally Credible
politico.com
Democratic candidates have overperformed in nearly every special election in 2025 and 2026 - POLITICO
But Democrats’ improvements compared to 2024 extend across races and districts that are very different from one another, including special elections for the House and state legislative seats, as well as regular gubernatorial and legislative elections in Virginia and New Jersey last year. The consistent progress for Democrats has come across red and blue districts, swing and safe states — and is a signal going into the midterms that the political environment has shifted since 2024. Morgan Bonwell, an Iowa-based Republican strategist, said Trump’s victory catalyzed Democratic voters to turn out. “That fired Democrats up. They had a big loss,” she said.
npr.org
Democrats keep doing better in elections since Trump returned to office
According to the election analysis publication The Downballot, <strong>Democrats have improved upon their 2024 presidential election margins by an average of 11% in special elections so far in 2026 and roughly 13% since the start of 2025.</strong>
dlcc.org
BREAKING: As Trump Rambles on in His State of the Union Address, Democrats Just Won Three More Special Elections
State legislative Democrats flipped ... none · WASHINGTON — <strong>State legislative Democrats have been defying the odds and clinching decisive victories in special elections across the country</strong> – and last night was no exception ...
brookings.edu
What do special elections mean for the midterm elections? | Brookings
<strong>Results from 2025 and 2026 special elections show consistent Democratic gains</strong>, pointing to shifting partisan momentum ahead of the midterms.
reuters.com
Democrats have excelled in special elections - what does that mean for the midterms? | Reuters
"Special election overperformance has historically been a pretty good indicator of what will happen in the next year's midterm," said Nathaniel Rakich, a writer who served as the senior elections analyst for the now-defunct political data site FiveThirtyEight. In the most recent example, Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva won a House seat vacated by her late father on September 17 by 40 percentage points, nearly double the margin that Harris carried the same district.
reddit.com
r/changemyview on Reddit: CMV: The fact that the two most recent recent special elections in Texas went to Democrats indicates that the country is rejecting extreme MAGA-ism as a …
Then they covered up Bidens (another unpopular president) decline and had no plan on the biggest issues of the 2024 election ... I think there’s some truth to this. Democrats have don’t what Republicans used to be known for and stated winning big in special elections.
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